In conjunction with this installment in our Offseason Outlook series, Steve Adams will be hosting a Royals-centric chat tomorrow morning at 9am CT. to ask a question in advance, and be sure to check back to participate live! The Royals havent had a winning record since their storybook World Series victory back in 2015. Their first season in the wake of Dayton Moores firing as president of baseball operations yielded more of the same dismal results. Theyve now lost 100-plus games in three of the past six seasons, and itll be incumbent upon J.J. Picollo to turn things around in his second year atop the baseball operations hierarchy. Guaranteed Contracts , C/DH: $44MM through 2025 (including buyout of 2026 club option) , RHP: $8.5MM through 2024 , LHP: $1.05MM through 2024 (Brentz will remain arb-eligible through 2026) Additional Financial Commitments $10MM still owed to INF/OF through 2024 season Option Decisions None Arbitration-Eligible Players Non-tender candidates: Hearn, Clarke, Taylor, Staumont Free Agents , , While last offseason brought about sweeping change with the firing of Moore and hiring of manager Matt Quatraro, the 2023-24 offseason should be quieter in terms of such big-picture machinations. Picollo wont be supplanted one year into his tenure, and the Royals arent going to move on from Quatraro after one tough season. Its po sible that Picollo will continue to make changes further down the baseball operations ladder, however. One such move is already in place, as The Athletics Keith Law recently reported that Kansas City is hiring former Braves scouting director Brian Bridges. Holding that position from 2015-18, Bridges oversaw high-profile selections of talents like , and , in addition to some late-round bullpen finds like and . Improvements in the scouting and draft proce s are a long-term play, of course. In terms of more immediately righting the ship in Kansas City, theres no shortage of work to do. Royals starting pitchers have MLBs fourth-worst ERA (5.16) and fifth-fewest innings (760 1/3). That ERA is practically an identical match with a 5.15 team bullpen ERA that ranks 28th in MLB. At the plate, the Royals are 24th in the Majors with 651 runs scored. Their collective 6.9% walk rate is second-worst among all MLB teams, and Kansas City ranks near the bottom of the barrel in terms of batting average (.243, 21st in MLB), on-base percentage (.302, 27th), slugging percentage (.396, 23rd) and home runs (156, 26th). Complicating this years dismal acro s-the-board performance is the fact that the Royals were relying heavily on young players they hope (or hoped) can bring the team back to relevance in the near future. Many of those players largely failed the test. Jr. has proven himself to be a cornerstone player at shortstop, belting 29 homers and swiping 48 bases while playing premium defense. Third baseman hasnt hit for power nor was he projected to but has swiped 23 bags and played good defense at the hot corner. Hes put the ball in play enough to help overcome a below-average walk rate and looks like he can have a long-term role in the infield, be it as a regular or as someone who eventually shifts to a heavily used utility player between third base, shortstop and second base. A suming s recovery from surgery on a torn labrum in his right shoulder goes according to plan, hell be back at first base after hitting .272/.355/.444 in his first 133 MLB games. With regard to the infielders, thats about the extent of the development. Pasquantinos injury opened more time for fellow first baseman , but hes yet to carry his huge 2021-22 minor league production over to the big leagues. has popped 14 homers, but his .225/.270/.375 slash is nowhere near strong enough to seize the second base job. Infield/outfield hybrids like and did not produce in small samples. The Royals could well keep things in house here, as its a dismal market for second base options. Old friend presents the best potential option in free agency, but hell likely garner interest from contending clubs (a suming either he or the Jays decline half of his 2024 mutual option). The rest of the market is comprised of rebound candidates (e.g. , ) or utility players (e.g. , ). The trade market presents alternatives, but Kansas City may not have the pitching coveted by teams with infield talent to market such as the Cardinals ( ) or Reds ( ). Well get to that lack of pitching in a bit, but the rest of the lineup also bears mentioning. The Royals dont have a single outfielder who they can count on as a well-rounded performer heading into the 2024 season. and have yet to hit big league pitching. Edward Olivares has provided roughly average offense at the plate but is not a strong defender. Catcher/outfielder worked almost exclusively in the latter of those two roles this year, and while hes having a big second half at the dish, he grades out as one of the worst defensive outfielders in the sport. Deadline pickup has erupted with 14 homers in 131 plate appearances and surely locked in a job in the proce s but even he grades as a sub-par defender. The Royals should add at least one outfielder this offseason if not two. As with second base, its a thin market. Kansas City isnt going to play at the top of the market for and , so unle s the plan is to offer rebound opportunities to a or , this could be another area to focus on in the trade market. Their 2022 acquisition of Waters has yet to pan out. Their has been outstanding so far. Targeting similar young outfielders lacking in clear paths to playing time with their current organizations could prove shrewd. Even behind the plate, the outlook isnt as strong as it once was. While Salvador Perez still carries plenty of name recognition, this years .252/.291/.419 batting line is nowhere near the .273/.311/.526 output he turned in from 2020-22. And Perez may be a five-time Gold Glove winner, but he hasnt taken that award home since 2018 in large part because his defense continues to wane. Hes thwarted just 14% of stolen base attempts against him this winter (league average is 21%), and Statcast pegs him below-average in terms of both blocking pitches in the dirt and framing pitches. Itd frankly be surprising if Perezs name didnt pop up in a trade rumor or two this winter he almost always does but such talk is generally brought about by media speculation rather than earnest chances of him being moved. Theres never been ASAP Ferg Jersey any strong chance that Perez will actually be traded. The Royals love him they named him just the fourth captain in team history and Perez has 10-and-5 rights that grant him full veto power on any deal. Further, given the $44MM remaining on his contract and aforementioned decline on both sides of the ball, Perez simply doesnt have the trade value many would a sume based on his track record and name. Theres also no clear immediate heir apparent to Perez, and thus no great urgency to move him. The use of Melendez almost exclusively in the outfield this year suggests the Royals dont believe hes a viable full-time option there. Twenty-eight-year-old could be an option to begin cutting into Perezs workload after a nice rookie showing, but a broken finger ended his season. Pursuing some veteran catching depth, even if just on a minor league deal, seems wise. The previously mentioned lack of pitching is the most glaring problem for Kansas City, particularly considering the heavy investment in college arms that the Royals hoped would fill out their pitching staff in the long run. Their ballyhooed 2018-20 selections of Brady Singer, Kris Bubic, , , and has yet to produce a clearly above-average starter. Singer has certainly looked the part at times, most notably in 2022, and he (among others) at this years trade deadline despite some first-half struggles. His performance has only gotten shakier (6.87 ERA in his past seven starts), and at this point any trade of Singer would be selling low. The composition of next years rotation is at least in part dependent on Zack Greinkes plans. After signing a pair of one-year deals to return to his original organization, it seems like Greinke prefers to play out his final days in Kansas City. If he wants to come back for his age-40 season next year which would allow him to take a run at multiple milestones, including 3,000 career strikeouts the Royals might well give him the chance to do so. If not, theyll be looking to replace roughly 200 innings between Greinke and Brad Keller, who is a free agent and is facing a cloudy outlook . While none of Singer, Lynch, Kowar or Bubic has developed as hoped, all are still in the organization. Singer and Lynch are the likeliest to have rotation jobs waiting. Kowar has already moved to the bullpen (and continued to struggle). Bubic is recovering y. Marsh has also debuted this year, pitching 70 innings in his MLB debut but recording a 5.66 ERA. Despite the stalled nature of those college arms, the Royals arent without some hope in terms of succe s for their pitching development. Trade acquisition , who came over from the Rangers in the deal, has gone from a squeezed-out former first rounder in Texas to a focal point in the Kansas City rotation in no time at all. Ragans had been relegated to bullpen work with Texas, but the Royals plugged him right into the rotation and have reaped immense benefits. After some slight tweaks to his repertoire, Ragans has pitched 65 1/3 innings of 2.34 ERA ball with a huge 31.3% strikeout rate and an 8.9% walk rate. Hes faced a generally weak slate of opponents, but even if you expect some regre sion, its hard not to be encouraged by the turnaround. Ragans, wholl turn 26 this winter and is controllable for another five years, has punched his ticket to the 2024 rotation. Singer and Lynch figure to be back in there as well. Last offseasons surprising two-year investment in Jordan Lyles should a sure him a spot despite poor 2023 results (6.24 ERA in 30 starts). The Royals need to add some arms, but they also need to focus on more than bulk innings. Last winters signings of Lyles and didnt meaningfully raise the teams ceiling. Kansas City still has Lyles bulk innings in the bank, so to speak, and Ragans gives them one potentially strong performer. The goal this time around should be to add some upside, and unlike the position-player market, free agency has several such candidates this offseason. No one should expect the Royals to outbid the field for NPB ace although their need for prime-aged pitching and largely blank payroll outlook arguably makes them an ideal team to take such a risk but there are several interesting injury reclamation projects. , and could all fit the bill, although Mahle will mi s the first half of the season following Tommy John surgery. has had a down year overall but will pitch next season at just 28. Notably, the Royals back in the 2021-22 offseason. A similar gamble on the bullpen side of things would make sense. The Royals have gotten a quietly interesting run from righty in recent weeks, as the righty has reeled off 13 1/3 shutout innings with three hits, no walks and 14 strikeouts since moving to the pen. Carlos Hernandez, armed with a triple-digit heater, was quite good through the end of July before hitting a rough patch down the stretch. Lefty has pitched decently in a bullpen role. By and large, however, the Royals are lacking in established, dependable relievers. With Chapman and both traded, they can offer a ninth-inning role to any free agent reliever they want to try to steer to Kauffman Stadium. They could give a longtime setup man like or a full-time closing gig. They could also roll the dice on any number of high-end injury reclamations (e.g. , , ) or perhaps just a former closer whos had some struggles down the stretch in 23 (e.g. old friend ). Any additions along those lines would give the Royals a chance at doubling down on their wildly succe sful signing of Chapman from last offseason. Whichever specific targets Kansas City pursues, the resources should be there for Picollo and his staff. The Royals still owe since-released corner man Hunter Dozier $10MM, but there are only three other contracts on the books (Perez, Lyles, Jake Brentz). In all they have just $39.55MM in guaranteed money to be paid out. Arbitration raises will push that number forward, but any of Taylor Hearn, Taylor Clarke, Josh Taylor or Josh Staumont could conceivably be non-tendered. Other arb-eligible players like Singer, Lynch, Bubic and Hernandez arent going to break the bank. Their current contracts combined with arb raises should still total under $50MM. That leaves at least a $40MM gap between the current group and this past seasons Opening Day payroll of about $91-92MM perhaps a bit more, depending on trade scenarios and non-tenders. The Royals arent going to play at the very top of the market, and it bears emphasizing that free agency is a two-way street; theyre going to have a hard time selling Kansas City as a preferred destination to even second- or third-tier free agents who have any kind of demand. It might mean overpaying (as they did with Lyles) or delving even deeper into the free agent waters. As is to be expected with any 100-lo s team, the areas in need of improvement outweigh those where the team appears set. The Royals have some money to splash around in free agency a bit, but dont expect any marquee additions. Upside plays for pitchers where their spacious park is surely a bonus and perhaps some additional trades to acquire controllable names in need of a change of scenery figure to follow. The Royals have more work to do than a team should after enduring eight straight losing or .500 seasons, and its going to take multiple years to get them back on track. RJ Barrett Jersey